TfL admits fare evasion loss could be £211m annually

Transport for London (TfL) may be underestimating the annual cost of fare evasion by as much as £21 million, according to an internal review. Officials have disclosed that a 10 per cent reduction is applied to the estimated value of lost revenue due to limitations in data collection.

TfL currently states that it loses £190 million annually to fare evasion, representing about 3.5 per cent of its revenue. However, the internal review suggests the total potential loss could reach £211 million per year. This figure is higher than the estimated £168 million in extra revenue generated from recent fare increases on buses and the Tube, as reported by Kumail Jaffer for the Local Democracy Reporting Service.

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Data Limitations Affecting Estimates

The admission, first disclosed to the Tube Alerter website, stems from officials' desire not to "overstate the estimated level of revenue loss." The publicly stated £190 million figure is presented as an evidence-based assessment that already accounts for these limitations. TfL attributes the adjustment to estimates being derived from intelligence-led activity at specific locations where fare evasion is more prevalent, meaning these may not fully represent the entire network.

An internal TfL review stated: "The estimated value of fare evasion incorporates a 10 per cent reduction to reflect the medium confidence level associated with the overall assumptions. This recognises the limitations of the available data and the absence of a system that automatically matches passenger journeys with payments made."

TfL anticipates that newer technologies, such as modern gateline infrastructure being tested in New York, could provide more accurate tracking of individuals passing through barriers without payment. The details of this internal confidence assessment and its supporting assumptions have not been published separately, with officials citing concerns that such detailed information could compromise TfL's ability to prevent, detect, and respond to fare evasion, thereby impacting public revenue protection.

Criticism from City Hall Conservatives

Thomas Turrell, transport spokesman for the City Hall Conservatives, criticised the situation. He told the Local Democracy Reporting Service: "Sadiq Khan has lost control of fare evasion. Instead of showing leadership and gripping the issue, he has trapped TfL in a doom loop where underestimating data leads them to not take the issue seriously, causing more underestimation. It is wrong, it must stop, and Londoners’ confidence must be restored that the Mayor is serious about tackling this crime that fare-paying commuters are expected to pick up the £200m bill for."

Festus Akinbusoye, a former Police and Crime Commissioner and member of Westminster City Council, added: "This is unfair for millions of Londoners who work hard and play by the rules. Instead of tackling fare evasion, which has doubled on the London Underground, TfL and the Mayor have been too busy fudging statistics to downplay the problem."

TfL's Response

A TfL spokesperson responded: "Robust analysis of fare evasion on London’s transport network is a vital tool in tackling it, and the estimated total cost of fare evasion is just one of many figures we produce to measure the scale of the issue. All figures produced are estimates that are calculated according to TfL’s best interpretation of the data, in line with industry standards. The estimated cost of £190m represents an evidence-based assessment that takes limitations of the data used into account."

Future Aims

TfL's stated aim is to reduce the overall fare evasion rate to 1.5 per cent by the end of 2031.