Tories could win 8 London seats from Labour, poll finds
A new survey suggests significant shifts in voting intention across west, north and central London.
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Trust score reflects named researcher, quoted Savanta poll data, specific dates and figures, but only one outlet.
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Headline uses sensational language like ‘hammer Labour’, giving a click‑bait tone beyond the poll’s measured findings.
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The Conservative Party may regain eight parliamentary seats in London from the Labour Party, according to a new poll. The Savanta survey, conducted for The Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London, shows Labour's voting intention at 32% across the capital. This represents an 11-percentage-point decrease compared to the party's standing in the July 2024 general election.
Reform UK and the Conservative Party are tied in second place with 18% voting intention each. The Green Party follows on 16%, with the Liberal Democrats on 10%, and independents and others on 6%. The poll was conducted online between 10 and 17 August 2026, with 1,036 Londoners aged 18 and over participating.
Chipping Barnet set for Conservative gain, poll suggests
A new survey indicates Labour could lose the north London seat at the next general election.
Potential Seat Gains
Analysis suggests the Conservatives, under leader Kemi Badenoch, could win seats such as Chipping Barnet and Finchley and Golders Green from Labour. Other potential Conservative gains include Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, Cities of London and Westminster, Kensington and Bayswater, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Brent West. These potential gains would reverse some of the losses the Conservative Party experienced in the 2024 general election, which left them with no MPs in Inner London.
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is identified as a potential winner of three seats from Labour and four from the Conservatives. The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, might secure four seats from Labour, primarily in Inner London. Independents are also analysed as potentially winning three seats.
Villiers rules out Chipping Barnet election comeback
Former MP will not seek Conservative candidacy for the seat she lost in 2024, opting for academic pursuits.
Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London, noted that the margins in many constituencies are narrow. This suggests Labour could retain a number of these seats. He indicated that Green Party gains might occur in Hackney, Newham, and Lewisham, while the Conservatives would target West London, and Reform UK would focus on outer east and southeast boroughs.
The survey also indicated Reform UK's mayoral contender for 2028, Laila Cunningham, is polling at 20%, placing her second behind Labour's 33% but ahead of the Conservatives' 18%. This suggests she could reach the run-off stage of the City Hall election.
Questions this report answers
+What is the current voting intention for Labour in London?
Labour's voting intention in London stands at 32%. This figure is 11 percentage points lower than the party's performance in the July 2024 general election, according to a Savanta survey for The Mile End Institute.
+Which parties are polling second and third in London?
Reform UK and the Conservative Party are tied in second place with 18% voting intention each in London. The Green Party is polling at 16%, followed by the Liberal Democrats at 10%.
+Which parliamentary seats could the Conservatives gain in London?
The Conservatives could potentially gain eight seats from Labour in London. These include Chipping Barnet, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, Cities of London and Westminster, Kensington and Bayswater, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Brent West.
+When was this poll conducted and how many people were surveyed?
The poll was conducted online between 10 and 17 August 2026. A total of 1,036 Londoners aged 18 and over were surveyed for the Savanta poll.
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