Small Business Confidence Hits 12-Year Low
Nationwide growth predictions drop to 24%, with London seeing a 12-month low.
Trust 42Craft 55Hype 65How this was reported ▾
Single source, no named local Barnet figures or documents cited.
How well corroborated and evidenced the reporting is. Higher is better.
No affected parties or local context provided beyond London.
Context, balance and separation of fact from comment. Higher is better.
Headline overstates regional impact with no Barnet-specific evidence.
How far presentation runs ahead of substance. Lower is better.
1 source assessed · methodology
Nationwide small business confidence has reached its lowest level in 12 years, with only 24% of enterprises anticipating growth. This figure matches the percentage of businesses expecting contraction or difficulty, a situation not seen since the initial COVID-19 lockdown in 2020. The survey by Novuna Business Finance, which polled 1,000 small businesses between July 5 and July 8, indicates a widespread economic challenge.
Regional Variations in Growth Forecasts
Islington Covid Positivity Rate Falls After Initial Spike
Council attributes initial high figures to low testing volumes, not a borough-wide surge.
Every region in England, except for the North West, experienced a decline in growth forecasts. London's small business confidence recorded a 12-month low, falling to 36%. While this performance was described as slightly more robust than other areas, it represents a significant drop from 48% a year ago and 40% at the start of 2024. The North West was the sole region to see a quarter-on-quarter increase, with growth forecasts rising from 26% in the second quarter to 28% for the third quarter.
Sharp downturns were observed in the South East, where confidence fell from 21% to 16%, and the South West, which dropped from 22% to 15%. The construction, retail, and hospitality sectors reported particularly steep declines.
Factors Influencing Confidence
TfL under‑investment leaves commuters losing 830,000 hours in April‑May 2026
A £6.5 billion renewals backlog and spending below the required level have driven delays that affect Barnet residents and the wider capital
Jo Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance, suggested that geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and political uncertainty following recent local elections likely influenced business planning. Morris stated that uncertainty is a significant deterrent for small businesses. The overall confidence level for English small businesses previously peaked at 35% two years ago, during a period of optimism surrounding a pro-growth administration.
Questions this report answers
+What does the 24% figure mean for small businesses?
Only 24% of small businesses nationwide expect growth, matching the percentage anticipating contraction or difficulty. This balance has not occurred since the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown, indicating widespread economic challenges.
+Which region bucked the downward trend in confidence?
The North West was the only region to see a rise in growth forecasts, increasing from 26% to 28% quarter-on-quarter. This contrasts with declines across all other English regions.
+How much did London’s confidence drop compared to last year?
London’s small business confidence fell to 36%, a 12-month low and a significant drop from 48% a year ago. It also declined from 40% at the start of 2024, reflecting growing economic concerns.
Barnet Press News Desk
This article was written at the Barnet Press news desk from the reporting of the outlets listed below it. Drafting is done by a language model under human editorial supervision — there is no reporter behind this byline, and we would rather say so than invent one.
How stories are produced and scoredWho runs Barnet PressCorrections
Barnet conditions
Loading live conditions…
More Coverage in World
Islington Covid Positivity Rate Falls After Initial Spike
TfL under‑investment leaves commuters losing 830,000 hours in April‑May 2026
Labour forecast to win up to 60 London seats, poll shows strong swing in Barnet
