London mayoral poll: Policing experience boosts Tory chances in 2028

A Conservative candidate for London Mayor with policing experience would attract more votes than one linked to the previous government, a new poll of 2,021 Londoners shows. The survey, carried out by Opinium between 10 and 17 July 2026, found 52% of respondents would be more likely to support a candidate with a background in crime and policing.

The findings present a challenge for former Home Secretary James Cleverly, who has been widely tipped as a potential contender. The poll suggests voters are less likely to back a candidate who served in the Conservative governments before 2024. A spokesperson for Cleverly did not respond to requests for comment.

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London’s direction under scrutiny

The poll also reveals a broader dissatisfaction with the city’s trajectory. 51% of Londoners believe London is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 34% who think it is on the right path. Issues such as policing, crime and housing were identified as the most pressing concerns over which the mayor has direct influence.

Festus Akinbusoye, a Westminster Conservative councillor and former police and crime commissioner for Bedfordshire, commissioned the poll. Akinbusoye, who now runs a facilities management business, is among those testing the waters for a mayoral bid. His exploratory committee said the results showed Londoners prefer a candidate with a fresh profile, business credentials and policing experience.

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“The background of the candidate will always be secondary to how well they understand the role and the London Assembly. We need a mayoral candidate who can connect with voters, who understands how to use the levers of power that will be available to them and who has a vision for a better London.”

Susan Hall, leader of the London Conservatives

Cross-party appeal and next steps

The poll indicates potential for the Conservatives to attract voters from other parties. 29% of likely Reform voters and 27% who might consider Reform said they would back a Conservative candidate. Among Labour voters, 20% said they would consider switching, with another 21% open to the idea.

Reform UK has already selected its candidate for the 2028 election. Laila Cunningham, a former Crown Prosecution Service prosecutor and Westminster councillor, will represent the party. The Conservatives have not yet begun their official selection process, leaving the field open for potential candidates.

Susan Hall, leader of the London Conservatives, ruled out another run after losing to Sadiq Khan in 2024. She said the focus should be on a candidate who understands the role and can communicate a clear vision for London. A Conservative Party spokesman said the party would select its candidate in due course, criticising Khan’s record on housing, crime and transport.

A London Labour spokesperson dismissed the poll, saying the Conservatives had failed Londoners during 14 years in government. They said: "Tory figures attempting to rehabilitate themselves is as laughable as it is insulting. They haven’t even apologised for the mess they inflicted on our capital."

What happens next

The Conservative Party is expected to begin its official selection process for the 2028 mayoral candidate in the coming months. Potential contenders include Akinbusoye, Lord Sebastian Coe and other members of the London Assembly. The party will need to balance the poll’s findings with its internal priorities before announcing a shortlist.