Labour forecast to win up to 60 London seats, poll shows strong swing in Barnet

A new Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now poll released on 5 October predicts Labour will capture 59 or 60 of the 75 parliamentary seats in London at the next general election. The forecast suggests a swing that would see the party win every seat in inner London and most outer boroughs, including the three Barnet constituencies that are presently held by the Conservative Party.

Survey methodology and timing

Read Next in Barnet Press3 min read

Home Office data show hate crimes rise 7% to 146,825 in year to March 2026

National figures reveal record numbers of anti‑Muslim and antisemitic offences, prompting calls for community action across Barnet and the wider region

The Standard reported that the poll was commissioned by PR firm PLMR and fieldwork was carried out by Find Out Now from 25 September to 2 October 2026. The sample size was 6,699 adults drawn from across the capital. The period overlapped with Labour’s national conference, a factor the pollsters noted could have lifted the party’s numbers.

What the numbers mean for Barnet

Related Borough Coverage3 min read

Councillor Yildiz lodges conduct complaint over vaccination comments

Green councillor Aziz Yildiz claims Labour's Alev Cazimoglu made inaccurate public accusations regarding his vaccination status.

Barnet’s three Westminster seats, Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green, are currently represented by Conservative MPs. The poll places Labour at 34% city‑wide, a nine‑point rise since July, while the Conservatives sit at 16%, two points lower. If the trend holds, Labour could overtake the Conservatives in those Barnet seats, mirroring the broader London swing.

“In political terms, Andy Burnham has eaten Zack Polankski's muesli, as underlined by the recent Labour win in the Holborn and St Pancras by‑election.”

Martin Baxter, chief executive, Electoral Calculus

Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, told The Standard that the poll reflects a consolidation of left‑of‑centre votes around Labour. He added that right‑of‑centre parties remain divided, which contributes to the projected loss of Conservative seats.

Kevin Craig, chief executive of PLMR, said Andy Burnham’s leadership is resonating with voters and that the prime minister’s messaging is being received positively in London. Craig’s comments were also reported by The Standard.

Next steps for residents

Barnet residents can watch how local party branches respond as the election approaches. The council does not intervene in party politics, but community groups may organise meetings to discuss the implications of a potential shift in representation. Voters will have the chance to register for the upcoming election during the standard enrolment period, which runs until the close of the electoral roll.