July 2026 on track to be driest on record for England and Wales

England and Wales are set to experience their driest July since records began, with rainfall figures falling far below previous lows. Provisional data from the Met Office shows England received only 5.6mm of rain this month, compared with the previous record of 13.4mm in 1911. Wales recorded 7.9mm, nearly a third of its previous low of 22.6mm.

The Met Office described July 2026 as a month of extreme heat, abundant sunshine and almost no rainfall. Dr Emily Carlisle, a Met Office scientist, said the figures were particularly notable given the exceptional temperatures recorded this summer. The south of England has seen temperatures 3.2C above average.

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Drought and wildfires spread

Natural Resources Wales extended its drought declaration to cover the entire country on 31 July 2026. Half of England is also officially in drought, following successive heatwaves that have strained water resources. Firefighters have faced an unprecedented number of wildfires, responding to 393 incidents across England and Wales in July alone.

This year’s wildfire figures already match the total annual numbers recorded in 2021, 2023 and 2024 combined. Fire chiefs warned that wildfires are becoming a recurring and growing risk for communities due to climate change. In Suffolk, firefighters have been tackling a blaze at Dunwich Heath since 23 July, using helicopters to drop seawater on inaccessible areas.

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Health risks rise with temperatures

The UK Health Security Agency estimates that 2,877 heat-associated deaths occurred during heatwaves in May and June 2026. This includes 753 deaths linked to a heatwave from 24 to 27 May and 2,124 deaths during a second heatwave from 21 to 28 June. The agency said 2026 could surpass 2022, the year it began tracking such deaths.

The National Trust called for urgent action to adapt to climate change, including building homes designed for future conditions, creating more resilient landscapes and cooling urban areas. The organisation has faced wildfires at multiple sites, including Dunwich Heath.

The Met Office forecast for the coming weekend predicts some showers, but rainfall will be uneven. Many areas may see little or no rain despite the unsettled outlook. Temperatures reached 35.2C on 30 July, marking the seventh day in 2026 to hit 35C or higher.

What happens next

The Met Office will finalise July’s rainfall figures on 1 August 2026. Natural Resources Wales and water companies in England will continue to monitor drought conditions and may introduce further restrictions if the dry weather persists. The UK Health Security Agency will update its heat-associated death estimates as more data becomes available.