Hendon set to switch to Conservatives in new poll, More in Common shows

More in Common released an MRP‑based projection on 29 July 2026 that places Hendon among the five constituencies the Conservative Party is expected to capture from Labour. The forecast overturns the current representation, which has been held by a Labour MP since the 2019 general election.

Labour’s position across the capital

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The same model shows Labour retaining 52 of the 59 seats currently held in London. That figure is a modest improvement on a similar poll conducted in July, which suggested Labour might lose eleven seats. The party would still be short of a majority in the city, remaining seven seats behind the Conservatives’ projected total.

Conservative gains and Reform UK’s lone seat

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The Conservatives are forecast to increase their London tally from nine to fourteen seats. The five gains listed are Chelsea and Fulham, Hendon, the Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Bexleyheath and Crayford. All are projected to be taken from Labour incumbents. By contrast, Reform UK is expected to win only Romford, where the sitting MP defected from the Conservatives to Nigel Farage’s party.

Green Party outlook and the Burnham effect

The survey also indicates that the Green Party will not secure any seats in London, despite a surge in support at the May local elections. Sammy McDonald of More in Common said the “Burnham bounce” may have restrained the Green challenge for now.

“The ‘Burnham bounce’ in London may have held back the Green challenge for now.”

Sammy McDonald, More in Common

What this means for Hendon residents

If the projection proves accurate, Hendon voters will see a change in party representation at the next general election. The shift could affect local priorities, as Conservative MPs typically focus on different policy areas than their Labour predecessors. Residents who wish to influence the outcome are advised to monitor candidate selections and engage with constituency surgeries once they are announced.

The poll does not account for individual candidate appeal or local campaign dynamics, so the final result may differ. Nonetheless, the forecast provides a clear indication of how party fortunes are expected to move across London ahead of the next election.