Heathrow Expansion May Cost UK Jobs, Report Claims

Plans to expand Heathrow Airport may lead to significant job losses in regions across the United Kingdom, according to an analysis of the government's own economic forecasts. The West Midlands region alone could see nearly 10,000 jobs disappear if the third runway proceeds. This potential impact on regional employment comes as an economic paper from the Department for Transport (DfT) indicates that airports in England and Wales could lose millions of passengers annually.

Regional Passenger and Job Losses Forecast

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Birmingham Airport is specifically forecast to experience a reduction of 7.5 million passengers per year by 2050. Economists estimate this decrease could equate to approximately 9,500 fewer jobs at the airport and within its associated supply chain. This projection raises concerns about the equitable distribution of economic benefits from major infrastructure projects.

Concerns Over Job Displacement and GDP Impact

The New Economics Foundation (NEF) has suggested that jobs created by Heathrow's expansion would largely represent those displaced from other parts of the country. Their analysis of DfT modelling indicates that by 2050, 15,200 aviation jobs that might otherwise have developed in regional areas, along with 6,400 jobs at other airports in London and the South East, could instead be concentrated at Heathrow. The NEF's head of economic policy, Alex Chapman, stated that the expansion appears to be a plan to move jobs and investment to London and the South East, taking spending from areas that need it most.

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Furthermore, DfT modelling suggests the overall economic boost from the expansion might be smaller than anticipated. The impact report indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) impact could be as little as 0.05% per year. A peer review for the DfT's GDP analysis noted that it would be erroneous to claim broad distribution of gains to regions based on the modelling.

Government Rebuttal and Future Projections

In response, the government has stated that the NEF's analysis focuses on a limited timeframe and that Heathrow expansion will deliver nationwide benefits. A DfT spokesperson highlighted the potential for over 60,000 local jobs to be created by the expansion and claimed that up to 40% of the £2.6 billion economic boost would benefit areas outside London and the South East. The spokesperson also projected that by 2055, passenger numbers at Birmingham Airport are forecast to nearly triple, leading to more local employment.

Heathrow's chief executive, Thomas Woldbye, argued that government economic models do not capture all benefits, including an estimated £150 billion in trade. He asserted that the project is supported by trade unions, businesses, and airports nationwide, who recognise its real advantages. He also noted that the government acknowledges the full economic value extends beyond traditional appraisal models.

Project Details and Opposition

The proposed third runway is estimated to cost £33 billion and would increase the airport's capacity to 756,000 flights annually from the current 480,000. Ministers aim to accelerate its construction for a 2035 opening. The project has faced opposition, including from Ed Miliband, who was part of the previous Labour government that approved expansion plans.

The construction involves building a 3,500-metre runway that would pass over the M25 motorway. Other impact assessments have indicated significant adverse effects on the health and wellbeing of up to three million people living near the airport.