Greater Manchester Elects New Mayor on Thursday

Residents across Greater Manchester are set to cast their votes on Thursday to select a new mayor for the city region. This mayoral role holds significant political power, second only to the Prime Minister and the Mayor of London in England. The election comes after Andy Burnham's departure from the position, necessitated by his successful election in the Makerfield by-election last month, which paved his path to Westminster.

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The Labour Party's candidate to succeed Mr Burnham is Bev Craig, who currently leads Manchester City Council. While Labour has historically performed well in the region, the party's support levels differ across the ten boroughs. Notably, eight of these boroughs voted in favour of leaving the European Union during the 2016 referendum. This demographic may offer opportunities for parties such as Reform UK.

Ms Craig, who has been at the helm of Manchester City Council since 2021, steps into a role previously held for over 25 years by Sir Richard Leese. Mr Burnham, the inaugural elected mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017, was re-elected twice, consistently achieving majorities across all boroughs and even defeating a Conservative opponent in his home constituency in 2017.

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Recent local elections saw Labour facing criticism from both the left and right, with Reform UK and the Green Party gaining traction. The Liberal Democrats also demonstrated strength, regaining control of Stockport. Reform UK, having previously led national polls and achieved significant local election victories, might have anticipated success in the mayoral race. However, their performance in two Greater Manchester by-elections this year, where the Greens secured Gorton and Denton and Labour won Makerfield, has cast doubt on their ability to convert recent momentum into a mayoral victory.

The involvement of Nigel Farage in a by-election in Clacton, Essex, limits his capacity to campaign extensively in Greater Manchester. While the Conservatives have seen a recent uplift, they were a distant second in the previous Greater Manchester mayoral election. The presence of Reform UK and Restore Britain could potentially dilute the Conservative vote share. The Liberal Democrats, strong in certain areas like Stockport, have found it harder to gain broader support. The Green Party, buoyed by their success in Gorton and Denton, may attract voters dissatisfied with the current Labour leadership.

Legacy and Future Considerations

Despite some criticisms, key aspects of Mr Burnham's mayoral tenure, such as transport network reforms and investment in towns like Altrincham and Stockport, are widely supported and unlikely to be reversed by opponents. However, Labour may still face public concerns regarding grooming gangs, and Mr Burnham's scrapped congestion charge proposals remain unpopular. The possibility of voters opting for change in the predominantly Labour-voting region also exists. A Labour loss in this election could be seen as an early setback for Mr Burnham's new role, while a win would highlight his personal appeal extending beyond party lines.

Regardless of the outcome, Greater Manchester's proximity to national power, with Number 10 North located in the city, ensures the region remains a focal point.