Tories to regain Finchley and Golders Green seat, poll suggests

The Conservative Party is projected to regain the Finchley and Golders Green parliamentary seat at the next general election, according to a YouGov MRP poll. The survey also indicates that Labour will lose eight seats across London, though it is expected to retain Chipping Barnet.

Projected Seat Changes in London

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The poll suggests that Labour will win 51 of London's 75 seats, a reduction of eight from its current position. The Conservatives are forecast to win back six seats previously held by Labour, including Finchley and Golders Green and Hendon. However, Labour is predicted to hold onto Chipping Barnet, a constituency that had previously been Conservative.

The YouGov MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) research, which uses data from nearly 17,000 Britons surveyed between 23 August and 18 September 2026, indicates that the Green Party will not secure any Members of Parliament in London. This contrasts with their gains in recent local elections in the capital.

Tanya Abraham, YouGov’s Head of International Political Research, stated that while the Greens are not projected to win any seats in London, they are expected to come second in 31 constituencies, suggesting a growing presence. The poll's findings are based on extrapolating constituency-level results from large-scale polling data.

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National Projections

Nationally, the poll projects Labour to win 241 seats, which would make them the largest party in a hung Parliament. This represents a significant improvement from YouGov's previous MRP poll a year ago, which predicted Labour would secure only 144 seats. The Conservative Party is projected to win 130 seats nationally, while Reform UK is forecast to gain four seats.

The poll also suggests that the Liberal Democrats would retain the six seats they currently hold in London. The overall projected outcome for the UK Parliament indicates potential challenges in forming a stable government, as a majority of over 325 seats would likely require multiple parties to cooperate. The survey noted that 37% of constituencies were decided by margins of five points or less, indicating that results could change.