London's Child Population Falls Sharply

London has experienced a significant decrease in its youngest residents, with the number of children aged 0 to 9 falling by 99,100 between 2013 and 2023. This trend is particularly pronounced in inner London, contrasting with an overall population increase of 506,000 across the capital during the same period. The London Assembly has labelled this demographic shift an 'existential challenge' for the city's future.

Factors Driving Families Away

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High living costs are a primary driver behind families leaving or choosing not to start families in London. In Islington, for example, childcare expenses can range from £2,000 to £3,000 per month. This, coupled with the ninth-highest rent-to-income ratio among councils in England and Wales, makes raising a family increasingly difficult. Renters in Islington spend approximately 46% of their median income on rent. The median house price in the borough is nearly 12 times the median annual income, placing it among the least affordable local authorities.

The borough also faces a substantial demand for social housing, with 16,794 households on its waiting list as of March 2025. These financial pressures lead many, like Tiphanie Frutuoso, to consider moving abroad. She and her husband are returning to Luxembourg, where childcare is free, despite having better career opportunities in London. Similarly, Samantha Nagaratnam and Tina Meschino, who had children at 35 and 41 respectively, found it challenging to secure adequate and affordable family housing.

Low Fertility and Workforce Concerns

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Islington records one of the lowest fertility rates in the country, with 0.99 children born per woman of childbearing age. This is below the rate for England and Wales, which stood at just under 1.4 in 2025. Contributing factors include a net loss of 1,062 women aged 30-34 from Islington in 2025, a demographic group typically associated with starting families. Laura Edwards, co-founder of Zip-Zap baby music classes, noted that families are relocating to other boroughs for better schools, more affordable housing, and greater space. She warned of significant implications for the economy in 40-50 years if the trend continues, potentially leading to a shortage of workers.

“What's happening in Islington is happening right across London. We need to tackle this as an absolute emergency.”

Bassam Mahfouz, chairman of the London Assembly's Economy, Culture and Skills Committee

Bassam Mahfouz, chairman of the London Assembly's Economy, Culture and Skills Committee, urged government and mayoral action to ensure children are present in all parts of the city. His committee's report recommends pursuing UNICEF Child Friendly City status, implementing child-friendly housing standards, and mapping recreational spaces. Katie Beck, a policy fellow at LSE Cities, highlighted that while people want children in London, the cost of living and childcare create significant barriers, prompting moves to outer boroughs or entirely out of the city.

The Choice to Remain Child-Free

For some, the decision not to have children is influenced by the London lifestyle and its associated costs. Francesca Baker-Brooker and her husband Andy chose to remain child-free, citing a preference for their current lifestyle and the financial impracticality of starting a family in London. Andy noted that it would have been difficult to move to London if they had intended to have children. They observe that a significant portion of their friends in London are also child-free, a choice they feel is more feasible within the capital than elsewhere.