Chipping Barnet set for Conservative gain, poll suggests
A new survey indicates Labour could lose the north London seat at the next general election.
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Chipping Barnet is projected to be a Conservative gain from Labour at the next general election, according to a new poll. The survey, conducted by Savanta for The Mile End Institute, suggests that the political landscape in the north London constituency could shift significantly.
The same poll also predicts that Finchley and Golders Green, another London constituency, could see a Conservative gain from Labour. These projections are part of a wider trend identified in the survey, which indicates Labour could lose up to 18 seats across the capital.
Villiers rules out Chipping Barnet election comeback
Former MP will not seek Conservative candidacy for the seat she lost in 2024, opting for academic pursuits.
London-wide voting intentions
The Savanta survey interviewed 1,036 Londoners aged 18 and over online between 10 and 17 August 2026. It found Labour's voting intention in London stands at 32%, an 11 percentage point decrease since the July 2024 general election. The Conservatives and Reform UK are both polling at 18% in the capital, with the Green Party at 16%.
Overall, the poll suggests the Conservatives could secure eight seats from Labour in London. The Green Party is predicted to gain four seats, Reform UK three, and three seats could go to independent candidates. The analysis was compiled by Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London.
Dame Theresa Villiers to leave Parliament for UCL academic role
Former Chipping Barnet MP will not seek re-election and will pursue postgraduate research at University College London.
Dr Kelly noted that margins of victory in many of these seats are likely to be small, meaning Labour could retain a number of them. The report acknowledges that the increasing fragmentation of politics in London makes calling individual constituencies more challenging.
Questions this report answers
+Which Barnet constituencies are predicted to change hands?
According to the Savanta poll, Chipping Barnet is projected to become a Conservative gain from Labour. Finchley and Golders Green is also predicted to switch from Labour to Conservative at the next general election.
+What is Labour's current voting intention in London?
The poll places Labour's voting intention in London at 32%. This represents an 11 percentage point decrease compared to their standing in the July 2024 general election, indicating a potential shift in voter preference across the capital.
+How many seats could Labour lose in London overall?
The survey suggests that Labour risks losing up to 18 seats in London at the next general election. Of these, the Conservatives are predicted to win eight seats from Labour, with other gains expected for the Green Party, Reform UK, and independent candidates.
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