Chipping Barnet set for Conservative gain, poll suggests

Chipping Barnet is projected to be a Conservative gain from Labour at the next general election, according to a new poll. The survey, conducted by Savanta for The Mile End Institute, suggests that the political landscape in the north London constituency could shift significantly.

The same poll also predicts that Finchley and Golders Green, another London constituency, could see a Conservative gain from Labour. These projections are part of a wider trend identified in the survey, which indicates Labour could lose up to 18 seats across the capital.

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London-wide voting intentions

The Savanta survey interviewed 1,036 Londoners aged 18 and over online between 10 and 17 August 2026. It found Labour's voting intention in London stands at 32%, an 11 percentage point decrease since the July 2024 general election. The Conservatives and Reform UK are both polling at 18% in the capital, with the Green Party at 16%.

Overall, the poll suggests the Conservatives could secure eight seats from Labour in London. The Green Party is predicted to gain four seats, Reform UK three, and three seats could go to independent candidates. The analysis was compiled by Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London.

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Dr Kelly noted that margins of victory in many of these seats are likely to be small, meaning Labour could retain a number of them. The report acknowledges that the increasing fragmentation of politics in London makes calling individual constituencies more challenging.